Checkmate? Toyota to sell 3.5 million EVs by 2030, unveils 16 models, 14 more coming - world's largest EV player?

• 30 new BEV models by 2030
• 3.5 million BEV sales by 2030, larger than annual sales volume of Daimler and PSA Group
• For USA, Europe, and China, Lexus will be a 100 percent EV brand by 2030

Tesla fanatics and Elon Musk worshippers will need to change their script now. Toyota has just announced that it will be launching 30 EV models by 2030, and yes these are fully electric battery EV types (BEVs).

Of the 30 new models, 16 of which were previewed at today’s online press conference on the company’s Battery EV Strategies. Enthusiast drivers will be pleased to know that at least 3 of the models shown are low slung, two-door sports cars, including one that is said to be a successor to the legendary Lexus LF-A.

President Akio Toyoda also announced to reach a global BEV sales of 3.5 million, including 1 million Lexus BEVs by 2030. That figure is already higher than the global sales volume of Daimler (2.8 million in 2019, pre-pandemic) and the PSA Group (3.5 million in 2019).

Total global sales of BEVs for 2021 is projected to hit slightly above 4 million. In the first half of 2021, a total of 2.65 million BEVs found new owners, including 386,000 Teslas and 172,700 Volkswagen ID series cars, and 227,000 units by GM - including those sold by its Chinese joint venture SGMW, maker of the Wuling Mini EV, the world’s best-selling EV.

The typically conservative Toyota didn’t say it that way, but the intention is clear, Toyota will become the world’s largest BEV manufacturer by 2030.

Among the BEV models presented are the mid-size Toyota Harrer-size Toyota bZ4x, which will be coming to Malaysia and will go on sale in Japan soon. Also presented were 4 more upcoming bZ models, including a compact SUV, small crossover SUV aimed at tight cities of Europe and Japan, a large 7-seater SUV, as well as a sedan.

Also read: UMW Toyota to launch 2 EVs starting 2022 – Lexus UX 300e and Toyota bZ4X?

Also shown is a working prototype version of the Lexus RZ, Lexus’ first dedicated BEV model.

The conservative Toyota opens its war chest – nearly RM 300 billion

Chief Technology Officer Masahiko Maeda also confirmed that Toyota will be increasing investments into BEVs by 4 trillion Yen (RM 148.9 billion), of which 2 trillion Yen will be allocated solely for battery research.

Not ending combustion engines, hybrids to stay

The phrase ‘the world is a diverse place’ and ‘no one solution for everyone’ was repeated many times.

“It is not us but local markets and our customers who decide which option to choose. Why do we keep so many options? In business management, one would think it would be more efficient to focus on fewer choices. However we believe that quickly adapting to changes in the future is more important than trying to predict the future, which is nothing but uncertain. We want to keep options available for our customers until the right path is known,” said President Akio Toyoda.

The company said it is not stopping, or even reducing its investments into hybrids and fuel cell, as another 4 trillion Yen has also been earmarked for the development of these technologies, so the total comes out to 8 trillion Yen (RM 297.9 billion). It’s a war chest only Toyota can afford.

Maeda gave an example of the situation in the US. Consumers in the West and East coast of the US can easily opt for BEVs but when you travel further into the central part of the US, the energy supply and infrastructure situation is different, and this is just talking about one country, what more about the rest of the world.

Toyota explained that as a global company that makes a full range of products, it is not realistic for Toyota to break the trust of their customers by forcing them to choose a BEV, if a BEV is not suitable for their needs, so an ‘extensive menu’ of vehicle and powertrain type is necessary.

“We are living in a diversified world and in an era in which it is hard to predict the future. Therefore, it is difficult to make everyone happy with a one-size-fits-all option.

“That is why Toyota wants to prepare as many options as possible for our customers around the world,” said Toyoda.

How to secure enough batteries?

The main reason why electric vehicles cannot become mainstream yet is not price, because price is a factor of supply and demand.

The bottleneck in rolling out more electric vehicles and the hurdle in reducing prices of BEVs is the securing enough minerals needed to build enough batteries. This is an area where Toyota has an advantage because it has been making hybrids since 1997, and has refined its battery raw materials sourcing and logistics for over 20 years, producing over 19 million batteries.

Toyota says it has secured enough supply of raw materials until 2030, partly due to the fact that Toyota Tsuho has been conducting surveys on sourcing of lithium since 2006.

The trading arm of Toyota has also been working to secure renewable energy sources for more than 30 years. By 2035, Toyota will achieve carbon neutrality at its BEV models manufacturing plants.

The company has secured 200 GWh in battery manufacturing capacity.

Akio Toyoda answers critics

To grow BEV sales and to win more funding from investors, BEV startups need to wrestle sales and attention away from traditional car companies and as the world’s No.1 car maker, Toyota is an easy target for groups heavily invested in BEV startups.

Even with a commitment to sell 3.5 million BEVs by 2030 , these groups will continue to say that Toyota is dragging its feet, because Toyota makes over 10 million cars a year (before chip supply shortage disrupted sales), meaning that 70 percent of Toyota’s cars will still have engines.

When asked about Toyota’s bottom ranking by environmental groups, President Akio Toyoda answered:

“Well it is their take. But are we really backward looking in terms of EVs? We are talking about 3.5 million EVs now with 30 models. Will we still be judged as backward looking in terms of electric vehicles? What should we do then? I would like to hear their answers.

“If that’s the case, do we look at the numbers by percentage, or the absolute numbers? Vehicles are for individual customers. One vehicle per customer. So it’s not the percentage numbers, but the absolute numbers we are talking about. Serving that number of customers, the total number of vehicles, however large that maybe, we will be building each and every vehicle with great effort put into it, whatever the powertrain, whatever the vehicle type will be, Toyota and Lexus will continue to offer the value of fun to drive and that’s what we will continue to do.”

Image by: Noriaki Mitsuhashi/N-Rak Photo agency