ABB Survey: 59% of auto industry believe EV adoption targets cannot be met, hydrogen FCEVs will be game-changers

The United States says 50% of all cars sold by 2030 must be zero-emissions, and in October 2022 the European Union (EU) parliament reached a provisional agreement to ban sales of new internal combustion engine (ICE) cars and vans starting 2035.

Malaysia's goals are a little more conservative, aiming to make up 15% total industry volume (TIV) for EV and hybrid by 2030 and 38% of TIV by 2040.

However today, this globally-shared, mandated shift to electric vehicles (EV) over the 2030-2040 legislative period is facing growing reservations among automakers and their suppliers alike, according to a recent Manufacturing Outlook Survey by ABB.

When asked if this shift is realistic within the time period, only 39 percent of respondents were positive about it. That leaves more than half of the survey respondents (59 percent, another 2 percent answered 'not sure') believing that targets will not be met by then.

Also read: EV-only future threatened as Germany makes U-turn on EU's 2035 combustion engines ban

Unsurprisingly, respondents say that the biggest impediments to this goal are managing supply chains and their corresponding costs.

Raw material shortages are also a leading reason (parked under the 19 percent 'Other' responses), and we're already seeing the effects of that as they slow manufacturers' EV push.

Also read: Well done! To build more EV batteries, we will soon be mining the ocean floor for minerals

Probed on the single biggest constraint to the EV industry's growth, respondents answered that a lack of charging infrastructure will be the biggest problem. High battery and consequently, EV prices are another issue, and so are concerns about the electricity grid capacity in the long term.

Hydrogen as a viable alternative

Looking beyond EVs, 26 percent of respondents believed that hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCEV) are likely to make a major contribution.

Another 20% believe hydrogen hybrid vehicles will also make its mark, while 12% believe there's a place for hydrogen-fueled internal combustion engines.

Against this backdrop, there's even greater importance for the auto industry to not just place all their eggs in one basket, but instead explore diverse options for future propulsion. BMW, Honda, Toyota, and Porsche are among the front-runners in the multi-pathway sphere; investing in hydrogen and synthetic fuels alike.

Also read: This Toyota GR Corolla is the world's first liquid hydrogen race car; faster refueling, longer range

The ABB survey respondents included 590 global industry experts, ranging from vehicle manufacturers, to suppliers at all levels, management, engineering, and other key stakeholders throughout the automotive world.