Germany and Switzerland now admit Toyota is right - engines not the enemy, carbon is, EV-only solution is too narrow
Hans · Mar 9, 2023 09:00 AM
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Germany blocks EU's proposal to ban combustion engines, now wants Toyota-style multi-pathway approach to carbon neutrality
Switzerland, which has no interest in engine manufacturing, gave surprise support following electricity shortage last winter
EU now expressed openness to non-battery alternatives
Germany is Europe’s largest market for battery electric vehicles (EVs). Last year, 17.7 percent of all new cars sold in Germany is a battery EV, just 0.1 percent behind diesels.
German car manufacturers are also at the fore front of the EV revolution.
The Mercedes-Benz EQS has one of the longest range, at 782 km (WLTP test cycle). The Porsche Taycan sets the bar for quality and performance, while BMW has one of the widest portfolio of battery EV models.
The German government is a strong advocate of decarbonizing transport using clean electricity. It is a strong supporter of the European Union’s proposed 2035 ban on sales of new combustion engine passenger cars and vans. At least that was the situation until February 2023.
Earlier this month, the German government suddenly did a political equivalent of a handbrake U-turn stunt.
Now, Germany says it won’t support the EU's proposed ban and is demanding for combustion engine cars running on carbon-neutral synthetic fuels to be exempted from the ban.
This sudden change in political position is throwing the EU Parliament in disarray, which has delayed the vote that was supposed to take place on Wednesday.
Germany finally realized that carbon neutrality cannot be achieved if existing cars on the road are not covered, and replacing all cars on the road with EVs is just too slow, requiring too much energy
Even more shocking is Germany’s Transport Minister Volker Wissing recent tweet: “The internal combustion engine itself is not the problem, the fossil fuels that it runs on are. Climate neutrality is the goal and at the same time an opportunity for new technologies. We have to be open to different solutions."
If that sounds familiar, it’s because former Toyota President (now Chairman) Akio Toyoda has been repeatedly saying the same message for years, only to be attacked by EV fanatics who accused him of trying to delay a full EV transition.
The German Transport Minister has now acknowledged that it is not realistic for Germany’s limited clean energy infrastructure to support a nationwide transition towards batteries, adding that stubbornly limiting Germany's options only to battery technology puts society’s future mobility at risk.
The Minister said, "We need every technological solution. Battery-powered vehicles, hydrogen fuel cells, and also synthetic fuels. This is the only way to achieve the ambitious climate protection goals and keep society mobile,” which is exactly what Toyota has been saying and doing with its multi-pathway strategy to achieving carbon neutrality.
Synthetic fuels are man-made liquid fuels, produced using electricity to combine hydrogen extracted from water / bio-waste with captured CO2, to create high energy content liquid fuel. When produced with carbon-neutral processes, synthetic fuel is also known as e-fuel.
Synthetic fuels have the potential to become a game-like 'cheat code' because it has the potential to transform every single car on the road carbon neutral overnight, except for one problem - producing it is far more expensive than charging an EV, but just like battery technology, companies like Toyota and Porsche are working to reduce the technology's cost.
German Transport Minister Volker Wissing
The German Transport Minister also said in a recent TV interview that carbon neutrality cannot be achieved if it doesn't include solutions that can reduce emissions of existing cars on the road.
This is because the last combustion engine car sold in 2035 will still be on the road for 15 years, and German roads cannot be carbon neutral until 2050. This is too slow.
"Even after 2035, the European vehicle fleet will not be completely electric overnight," said the Minister who asked rhetorically on the real-world carbon reduction benefits even if it ramps up sales of EVs.
"With openness to technology, we want to keep various paths to climate-neutral mobility open and rely on competition between the best technologies," added the Minister.
Finding cheaper e-fuels so we can decarbonize our roads faster instead of waiting 15 years for every combustion car on the road be scrapped and replaced with EVs is exactly why Akio Toyoda and his son Daisuke took part in a 25-hour endurance in Buriram, Thailand last December.
Toyota completed a 25-hour endurance race in Buriram with converted combustion engine cars - Akio's GR Corolla burns hydrogen, his son Daisuke's GR 86 burns synthetic fuel. Toyota is using motorsports to stress test green fuel production, transport, storage, refueling, engine conversion reliability
In that same event at Buriram, Akio Toyoda told the assembled media that other car companies will eventually agree that Toyota's approach is the right one, but because of peer pressure, are afraid to speak the truth.
“People involved in the auto industry are largely a silent majority,” he said. “That silent majority is wondering whether EVs are really OK to have as a single option. But they think it’s the trend so they can’t speak out loudly.”
Three months later, the events are unfolding as predicted by Toyota.
When German newspaper Bild asked Transpor Minister Wissing asked if the government's position is to save combustion engine industries, the Minister said:
"I have no doubts about the attractiveness of EVs. On the contrary, we are ramping up EVs. But EVs are not the sole solution. There must also be other technologies. The combustion engine will continue to play an important role globally in the coming years. And we have to answer the question: What are we going to do with the existing fleet – there are millions of vehicles in Germany alone.”
Again, this the exact message Akio Toyoda said years ago, but few were willing to listen.
Now a Chairman, Akio Toyoda's racing activities was frequently criticized (internally) by previous Chairman 'Mr. Prius' Takeshi Uchiyamada, who said Akio was being reckless as him getting injured would directly affect Toyota. Akio raced anyway, saying he is putting his life on the line to build ever-better cars.
“The goal is carbon neutrality. Promoting BEV sales or banning gasoline cars is not in any way the goal. It is a must that cars already on the road be made carbon neutral (too)," said Akio.
The Toyota man used the example of Japan, which has 78 million cars on the road, and registers 5 million new cars annually.
Adopting the EU approach of banning sale of new combustion engine cars, it would take at least 15 years for Japan to replace existing cars on the road with BEVs. Far from being ignorant of the climate crisis, Toyota is calling for governments to support a solution that can deliver results faster, but because this is not in-line with Elon Musk's vision, pro-Tesla EV blogs started attacking Mr. Toyoda.
Chairman Toyoda, speaking at the Japan Committee on Mobility in the lead up to the G7 Summit Hiroshima
More recently, Chairman Toyoda said at Japan's recent Committee on Mobility sitting, which serves as a lead up to the G7 Summit in Hiroshima, "There is talk of banning (new sales of) petrol-powered vehicles in 2035. Currently, around five million new cars are sold in Japan (annually). To produce that (many BEVs) every year would require a nuclear plant worth of additional power generation capacity." Electricity is something that resource-strapped Japan don't have a lot.
Chairman Toyoda was referring to the significantly more energy required to produce EVs, which as a consequence emit more CO2 during manufacturing than regular hybrids or ICE cars.
The counter-argument (and it's a valid one) is that these zero emission vehicles will claw back the differences after 50,000 km to 112,000 km, depending on the source of electricity used to charge the car (Data: Volvo / Polestar, Lifecycle Assesment 2020).
But again, this is far too slow, further supporting Toyota's position for a multi-pathway strategy.
It is true that battery EV is the cleanest, most efficient tech. Far superior to hydrogen or synthetic fuels. The problem is that it takes too long for it to deliver the results, needing between 50k - 112k km to undo its 'additional damage' during manufacturing. Source: Polestar / Volvo
Toyota's proposed muti-pathway approach to attaining carbon neutrality involves betting on everything - battery EVs will be promoted alongside alternatives like hydrogen fuel cells, hydrogen combustion engines, and synthetic fuels – the last two has the potential to convert existing combustion vehicles on the road into carbon neutral ones.
There is one problem - few companies are as rich as Toyota to bet on everything, and few governments have the money to support this many projects simultaneously. Still, Germany is swinging towards this direction now.
Tesla might be valued more than Toyota but valuations are like imaginary money. To develop real products you need real money, not Monopoly money, and the financially conservative Toyota's war chest of real money is bigger than any other car company.
Germany is also the largest economy in the EU.
As Europe’s largest economy, Germany often sets the pace for EU policies. The change in stance has drawn support from Italy and Switzerland. The latter's decision to vote against the ban is surprising because Switzerland has no vested interest in combustion engines, and are among the wealthiest in Europe. The Swiss can easily afford battery EVs. Switzerland's experience with shortage of electricity last winter is a likely motivation to keep their energy security options open.
Ecosystem for synthetic fuels - Advantage: can power existing cars. Disadvantage: It's far too expensive, much more expensive than charging an EV
“In order to achieve the climate policy goals, technology-neutral measures are required,” said Switzerland’s Transport Commission of the National Council in rejecting the EU’s proposed ban on combustion engines.
Lesser developed EU member countries like Portugal, Romania, Poland, Hungary, Croatia, Czech Republic are also rallying behind Germany, either by outrightly opposing the combustion engines ban or abstaining from voting.
The synthetic fuel powering the GR86 at the Buriram 25 Hour endurance race is made from garbage (really), mixing it with CO2 captured from factories. High fuel cost is a problem Toyota and Porsche are working to solve (independently)
Toyota’s overarching idea is that the world is very diverse. Different drivers have different needs, and users in different parts of the world face different challenges, and there cannot be a one-size fits all battery EV-only solution.
Don't favour one technology over another, promote competition, may the best technology win. Consumers, not politicians, will determine which drivetrain technology will prevail.
Critics (mostly Tesla fanatics) however, say Toyota’s multi-pathway to carbon neutrality approach is a distraction to a full 100 percent commitment towards battery EVs.
Toyota is using motorsports to stress test logistics of hydrogen fuel transport and storage, to be used either in combustion engines or fuel cell electric cars
It should also be pointed out that China, the world's largest battery EV producer and market, has no intention of banning combustion engines, or pursuing a battery EV-only future.
In fact, China's next step is to establish a hydrogen economy. The target is to have 50,000 FCEVs by 20235, and to master core technology of fuel cell and hydrogen production by 2035.
In terms of sales, the target is for battery EV, hydrogen fuel cell, and plug-in hybrid vehicles to make up 50 percent of new car sales in China, with the remaining made up of regular hybrids.
China is currently the largest hydrogen producer in the world, with an annual production output of about 33 million tonnes.
Against the backdrop of rivalry between the West and China, the EU's narrow-minded battery EV-only approach seems poorly thought through, or worse, is the result of intense lobbying by those with vested interest in EV batteries.
China is the world leader in EV battery manufacturing but it too, is pursuing a diversified energy policy that involves hybrids and hydrogen fuel cells
Separately, Automotive News Europe reports that Porsche and Ferrari (emphasis: not Toyota) have been lobbying for a reversal in Germany's and Italy's position on the ban.
Although Porsche sells the Taycan, it is steadfast in defending the 911’s flat-six engine heritage. As the flag bearer for the famed Porsche crest and the pride of Germany, Porsche will cease to be Porsche when the 911 no longer exists in its iconic form.
Porsche has repeatedly affirmed that there will not be an electric 911, and Porsche is a strong advocate of e-fuels. Will EV proponents attack Porsche CEO Oliver Blume in the same way they attacked Akio Toyoda?
Many didn't expect the maker of the Taycan to lobby against EVs, but Porsche is seeing a problem that some of its EV peers refuse to acknowledge
Ferrari is also not agreeable to a battery EV-only future, and is developing its own synthetic fuel technology.
“Operating combustion engine vehicles in a climate-neutral way could also help speed up the decarbonization of the transport sector,” a Porsche spokesperson told Automotive News Europe (ANE).
Existing vehicle fleet should be included in the push to lower CO2 emissions faster, the spokesperson added, indirectly echoing Toyota’s position.
But realistically speaking, to say that all this is happening just because Porsche and Ferrari made some calls or submitted some papers is grossly exagerrating the ability of one or two companies in influencing politics.
With the EU Parliament now in a deadlock, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz had met with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen for a middle-ground solution.
The EU Parliament also hinted that it is willing to compromise and be open to other non-battery but equally carbon-neutral alternatives. The response upset many battery EV backers, especially companies that have bet everything they have on EVs, like Volvo's Polestar CEO Thomas Ingenlath, who told ANE, “I would call it now almost pathetic.”
“The industry and the politicians should finally give that very clear signal about what is the journey ahead,” added Ingenlath.
“We are in a constructive dialog,” von der Leyen told the European media earlier this week. “We give full support for technological openness, but it must be in line with our goal of climate change.” She added that the discussions were “good and constructive.”
Battery EV is still the most efficient drivetrain. That's a scientific fact. But it's also a fact that EVs are the slowest method to decarbonize our roads, unless we can somehow find enough clean energy to produce so many EVs, and find so many more minerals, and force everyone to change their ICE cars overnight
It is important to remember that synthetic fuels are not superior to battery EVs, which we have to recognize is still the most energy efficient drive technology. But difficulties in making enough batteries to replace existing cars on the road (and still have enough batteries to expand solar farms) fast enough are real problems that EV proponents need to also recognize.
Like many complex problems, there is no one magic solution to solve it.
Over 15 years of experience in automotive, from product planning, to market research, to print and digital media. Garages a 6-cylinder manual RWD but buses to work.
